I am impatient for cfbd to populate the 2022 schedules so I can see how the Monte Carlo stuff performs on “fresh powder.” The good news is with the testing harness we can fake up the announced schedule without too much trouble. This should be it: Doing the teams as unstructured tuples is kind of… Continue reading Faking 2022
Author: mcc1
some tests are better than none
I was hung up for a while on the idea of unit tests and a proper test harness and how to pickle test sets. Python3 pickle serialization package seems really nice but it occurred to me that the most bang for my buck is some kind of end-to-end test with artificially created schedule data. The… Continue reading some tests are better than none
algorithmic tie-breaking
As we identified last month our worst bug right now is the handling of multi-way ties in the final standings so let’s dive in with some new code. First off in this commit we get rid of the false positive and identify the ties we are not handling so that we actually fail when we… Continue reading algorithmic tie-breaking
1951 San Francisco
We’re back with more results from the 1950s. 1951 really stands out. The University of San Francisco won the title going 5-0. Here is the verbose run: $ python3 ./mcc_schedule.py -v -s 1951 -e 1951 San José State 2 at San Francisco 39 on Sep 20, 1951 Santa Clara 0 at California 34 on Sep… Continue reading 1951 San Francisco
roadmap
It’s the end of the season; what now? Let’s do a check of the big board and get an H1 roadmap down. (I just googled “kanban for wordpress.”) Bugs multiway tiebreakers: This bug dominates all others right now. The tiebreakers code is painfully rigid in its two-teams-only approach. Logically we don’t have a clear ruleset… Continue reading roadmap
let’s crack home field advantage
Looking into how to add home field advantage (HFA) to the Elo predictor I got down a rabbit hole of what numbers to use. The code we had for home_road_splits.py was tuned to use our virtual conference set. That produced the 55% home winning percentage number that we employed in the first base case predictor.… Continue reading let’s crack home field advantage
We have a 2021 champ
Fresno State is our 2021 Mythical California Cup winner: $ python3 ./mcc_schedule.py -v San José State 7 at USC 30 on Sep 04, 2021 Stanford 42 at USC 28 on Sep 11, 2021 Fresno State 40 at UCLA 37 on Sep 18, 2021 UCLA 35 at Stanford 24 on Sep 25, 2021 San Diego State… Continue reading We have a 2021 champ
Elo
Just in time for the last few live games I got a crude Elo predictor working. As I detailed earlier Elo makes sense to be used in the framework of a Monte Carlo harness. Here’s the diff where we slot Elo in as a new MC_Predictor subclass. Results: $ python3 ./mcc_schedule.py -v San José State… Continue reading Elo
home stretch
We will have a new champ. Stanford and USC’s long duopoly ended Saturday with the thrashings each received at home. That’s been a common theme this year. Take a look at the home/road splits starting 10 years ago for games within our Mythical California Cup “virtual conference”: $ python3 ./home_road_splits.py -s 2011 totals for year… Continue reading home stretch
real games
We finally get some real California Cup games back this week with the LA and Bay Area rivalry games. I also added some more “real game” sauce to the Monte Carlo sampled margin predictor. Instead of just margins I checked in a fixed array representing 10 years of actual game scores from MCC games. Thus… Continue reading real games