We have a 2021 champ

Fresno State is our 2021 Mythical California Cup winner: $ python3 ./mcc_schedule.py -v San José State 7 at USC 30 on Sep 04, 2021 Stanford 42 at USC 28 on Sep 11, 2021 Fresno State 40 at UCLA 37 on Sep 18, 2021 UCLA 35 at Stanford 24 on Sep 25, 2021 San Diego State… Continue reading We have a 2021 champ

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Elo

Just in time for the last few live games I got a crude Elo predictor working. As I detailed earlier Elo makes sense to be used in the framework of a Monte Carlo harness. Here’s the diff where we slot Elo in as a new MC_Predictor subclass. Results: $ python3 ./mcc_schedule.py -v San José State… Continue reading Elo

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home stretch

We will have a new champ. Stanford and USC’s long duopoly ended Saturday with the thrashings each received at home. That’s been a common theme this year. Take a look at the home/road splits starting 10 years ago for games within our Mythical California Cup “virtual conference”: $ python3 ./home_road_splits.py -s 2011 totals for year… Continue reading home stretch

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real games

We finally get some real California Cup games back this week with the LA and Bay Area rivalry games. I also added some more “real game” sauce to the Monte Carlo sampled margin predictor. Instead of just margins I checked in a fixed array representing 10 years of actual game scores from MCC games. Thus… Continue reading real games

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stuck in Monte Carlo

I knew what the Monte Carlo feature looked like in my head but I got bogged down reading the wikipedia article. Ultimately the season-simulator I’m thinking of is what I think something like 538 is using: best-guess probabilistic model to assign probabilities of the discrete event outcomes (games) overall evaluator that can determine larger season… Continue reading stuck in Monte Carlo

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Ties for the win

The objectively terrible overtime game between Penn State and Illinois made us all think about how we miss ties: I think the current swing is a more mundane generational shift: The last tie in college football was in 1995 before the new overtime rules took effect the next year. Ties became associated with the recently… Continue reading Ties for the win

Simulating outcomes

As expected the recursion at the core was fun and a little bit magical: For the faked outcomes we use the very scorigami-ish score of 55-4. Obviously since margins of victory matter in our final tiebreaker system we can either go crazy and simulate many different scores or just pick one for the enumeration. Here’s… Continue reading Simulating outcomes

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Meaningful games in November

Mea culpa in not realizing last week that SDSU’s “home” game was actually played in Carson. That’s (partially) why the line didn’t reflect a true home field advantage for SDSU and indeed it moved more toward Fresno at game time and Fresno did win convincingly. Gambling advice is for entertainment only! Fresno and San Diego… Continue reading Meaningful games in November

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MCC Gameday is going to San Diego

I have probably spent about 17 minutes of my life total actually watching College Gameday and many hours reading commentary and reaction about where they have picked the next site to be. Not surprisingly, I find a semi-arbitrary third-party decision awarding some trivial crown based on week-to-week results and behind-the-scenes intrigue compelling. Before we get… Continue reading MCC Gameday is going to San Diego

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1958 Cal vs. Pacific

It’s an inescapable fact of California (the state) football that the last time California (the school) went to a Rose Bowl was January 1, 1959. (There was some unpleasantness in 2004.) Since that 1958 season was something of a high water mark for Cal surely they must have won the Mythical California Cup that year… Continue reading 1958 Cal vs. Pacific