I was not expecting breaking college football news today but that’s what we all got: USC and UCLA are leaving the Pac-12 for the Big 10. You can find all the takes and coverage elsewhere. (Here is Wilner’s aftermath column.) What does it mean for the Mythical California Cup? As Wilner says, “The California Four,… Continue reading Realignment
Category: results
Docker and a regression
Let’s make a docker container out of this thing. The key win from docker is it gives you a headache-free way to “just run” something and not worry about the dependencies and install/uninstall and binary incompatibility and all that great stuff. So in our case it’s a bit of overkill. I’ve taken pains to keep… Continue reading Docker and a regression
2022 forecasting
The 2022 schedule is up in the cfbd API so let’s try a run: $ python3 ./mcc_schedule.py -v USC at Stanford on Sep 09, 2022 Fresno State at USC on Sep 16, 2022 San José State at Fresno State on Oct 14, 2022 San Diego State at Fresno State on Oct 28, 2022 Stanford at… Continue reading 2022 forecasting
Faking 2022
I am impatient for cfbd to populate the 2022 schedules so I can see how the Monte Carlo stuff performs on “fresh powder.” The good news is with the testing harness we can fake up the announced schedule without too much trouble. This should be it: Doing the teams as unstructured tuples is kind of… Continue reading Faking 2022
1951 San Francisco
We’re back with more results from the 1950s. 1951 really stands out. The University of San Francisco won the title going 5-0. Here is the verbose run: $ python3 ./mcc_schedule.py -v -s 1951 -e 1951 San José State 2 at San Francisco 39 on Sep 20, 1951 Santa Clara 0 at California 34 on Sep… Continue reading 1951 San Francisco
We have a 2021 champ
Fresno State is our 2021 Mythical California Cup winner: $ python3 ./mcc_schedule.py -v San José State 7 at USC 30 on Sep 04, 2021 Stanford 42 at USC 28 on Sep 11, 2021 Fresno State 40 at UCLA 37 on Sep 18, 2021 UCLA 35 at Stanford 24 on Sep 25, 2021 San Diego State… Continue reading We have a 2021 champ
Elo
Just in time for the last few live games I got a crude Elo predictor working. As I detailed earlier Elo makes sense to be used in the framework of a Monte Carlo harness. Here’s the diff where we slot Elo in as a new MC_Predictor subclass. Results: $ python3 ./mcc_schedule.py -v San José State… Continue reading Elo
home stretch
We will have a new champ. Stanford and USC’s long duopoly ended Saturday with the thrashings each received at home. That’s been a common theme this year. Take a look at the home/road splits starting 10 years ago for games within our Mythical California Cup “virtual conference”: $ python3 ./home_road_splits.py -s 2011 totals for year… Continue reading home stretch
real games
We finally get some real California Cup games back this week with the LA and Bay Area rivalry games. I also added some more “real game” sauce to the Monte Carlo sampled margin predictor. Instead of just margins I checked in a fixed array representing 10 years of actual game scores from MCC games. Thus… Continue reading real games
stuck in Monte Carlo
I knew what the Monte Carlo feature looked like in my head but I got bogged down reading the wikipedia article. Ultimately the season-simulator I’m thinking of is what I think something like 538 is using: best-guess probabilistic model to assign probabilities of the discrete event outcomes (games) overall evaluator that can determine larger season… Continue reading stuck in Monte Carlo