2022 preview

I’ve already run the 2022 schedule once so I won’t go through it all again but I need an excuse to show Midjourney’s interpretation of an Aztec triumph:

aztec warrior holds golden trophy cup, painting by Mort Kunstler [Midjourney]

This is the “stock” predictor:

Monte Carlo [Elo Predictor] Simulation:
UCLA 4978 [49%]
Fresno State 2688 [26%]
California 855 [8%]
San Diego State 780 [7%]
USC 596 [5%]
Stanford 42 [0%]
San José State 42 [0%]
No Winner 19 [0%]

As we discussed before, this is using last year’s closing Elo values. USC ended the year with a terrible run and a low Elo. If we give them a boost for all the coaching and skill upgrades and set it to 1640, which is right where Fresno State is, we get this:

Monte Carlo [Elo Predictor] Simulation:
UCLA 4443 [44%]
USC 2099 [20%]
Fresno State 1924 [19%]
San Diego State 904 [9%]
California 556 [5%]
San José State 41 [0%]
Stanford 22 [0%]
No Winner 11 [0%]

Nothing too earth-shattering.

All SDSU has to do is sweep their two games (Fresno State, San Jose State) and sit in the clubhouse hoping no one else runs up an undefeated season with more wins. Piece of cake.

Our first MCC game is just 10 days away, USC at Stanford. Away we go.

Categorized as results