First the real Pac-12 simulation. Unfortunately the games have gone against our dream for an extra California game that decides both the MCC and the Pac-12. Odds of appearing in the Pac-12 championship game:

Utah 59%
Oregon 54%
USC 52%
UCLA 28%

Fun race. As before, the odds don’t add up to 200% exactly because of a long tail of low probability outcomes. The odds of a 1-2 pairing of UCLA/USC are just under 5%. (Mostly because either one finishing in the one spot is much less likely than either one finishing in the two spot.)

Back to the race that matters:

$ python3 ./ -v
USC 41 at Stanford 28 on Sep 10, 2022
Fresno State 17 at USC 45 on Sep 17, 2022
San José State 10 at Fresno State 17 on Oct 15, 2022
San Diego State 28 at Fresno State 32 on Oct 29, 2022
Stanford 13 at UCLA 38 on Oct 29, 2022
California at USC on Nov 05, 2022
San José State at San Diego State on Nov 11, 2022
Stanford at California on Nov 18, 2022
USC at UCLA on Nov 18, 2022
UCLA at California on Nov 25, 2022

Full Enumeration Simulation:
USC 18 [56%]
UCLA 8 [25%]
California 6 [18%]

Monte Carlo [Sampled Home Margin Predictor] Simulation:
USC 5602 [56%]
UCLA 2482 [24%]
California 1916 [19%]

Monte Carlo [Elo Predictor] Simulation:
USC 5376 [53%]
UCLA 4389 [43%]
California 235 [2%]

USC                     2-0
UCLA                    1-0
Fresno State            2-1
San José State          0-1
San Diego State         0-1
Stanford                0-2
2022, 10, ,

We’ve lost some real ones. The Mountain West schools have cannibalized each other. Cal is somewhat hilariously still alive by virtue of not playing a game. They still have a chance to win by sweeping, but since USC has 4 total games they will win any contest of 1-loss teams. The most entertaining outcome is still UCLA/USC playing their rivalry game for the title, UCLA wins and leaves Cal the chance to play spoiler in the final week.

Categorized as results