Faking 2022

I am impatient for cfbd to populate the 2022 schedules so I can see how the Monte Carlo stuff performs on “fresh powder.” The good news is with the testing harness we can fake up the announced schedule without too much trouble. This should be it: Doing the teams as unstructured tuples is kind of… Continue reading Faking 2022

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some tests are better than none

I was hung up for a while on the idea of unit tests and a proper test harness and how to pickle test sets. Python3 pickle serialization package seems really nice but it occurred to me that the most bang for my buck is some kind of end-to-end test with artificially created schedule data. The… Continue reading some tests are better than none

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algorithmic tie-breaking

As we identified last month our worst bug right now is the handling of multi-way ties in the final standings so let’s dive in with some new code. First off in this commit we get rid of the false positive and identify the ties we are not handling so that we actually fail when we… Continue reading algorithmic tie-breaking

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roadmap

It’s the end of the season; what now? Let’s do a check of the big board and get an H1 roadmap down. (I just googled “kanban for wordpress.”) Bugs multiway tiebreakers: This bug dominates all others right now. The tiebreakers code is painfully rigid in its two-teams-only approach. Logically we don’t have a clear ruleset… Continue reading roadmap

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Elo

Just in time for the last few live games I got a crude Elo predictor working. As I detailed earlier Elo makes sense to be used in the framework of a Monte Carlo harness. Here’s the diff where we slot Elo in as a new MC_Predictor subclass. Results: $ python3 ./mcc_schedule.py -v San José State… Continue reading Elo

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real games

We finally get some real California Cup games back this week with the LA and Bay Area rivalry games. I also added some more “real game” sauce to the Monte Carlo sampled margin predictor. Instead of just margins I checked in a fixed array representing 10 years of actual game scores from MCC games. Thus… Continue reading real games

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stuck in Monte Carlo

I knew what the Monte Carlo feature looked like in my head but I got bogged down reading the wikipedia article. Ultimately the season-simulator I’m thinking of is what I think something like 538 is using: best-guess probabilistic model to assign probabilities of the discrete event outcomes (games) overall evaluator that can determine larger season… Continue reading stuck in Monte Carlo

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Ties for the win

The objectively terrible overtime game between Penn State and Illinois made us all think about how we miss ties: I think the current swing is a more mundane generational shift: The last tie in college football was in 1995 before the new overtime rules took effect the next year. Ties became associated with the recently… Continue reading Ties for the win