Current 2021 results and standings:
San José State 7 at USC 30 on Sep 04, 2021 Stanford 42 at USC 28 on Sep 11, 2021 Fresno State 40 at UCLA 37 on Sep 18, 2021 UCLA 35 at Stanford 24 on Sep 25, 2021 San Diego State at San José State on Oct 15, 2021 Fresno State at San Diego State on Oct 30, 2021 USC at California on Nov 12, 2021 California at Stanford on Nov 19, 2021 UCLA at USC on Nov 19, 2021 Fresno State at San José State on Nov 24, 2021 California at UCLA on Nov 26, 2021 Fresno State 1-0 UCLA 1-1 Stanford 1-1 USC 1-1 San José State 0-1 2021, 11, ,
There are no California games on the schedule this week so we’ll have to make do with two huge Big Ten games and a Giants-Dodgers playoff series. (AKA the MCC of baseball.) Things are tough.
Looking at what’s coming up and doing a basic up/down projection of games based on Sagarin’s ranking, it looks like SDSU still has the best chance to win the cup with a record of 2-0. It’s a bold move to schedule so few California games because any undefeated team with more beats them out. But two is the minimum to qualify for the cup; they knew the rules and this year it might work out.
To get there they have to beat Fresno State, which will be a challenge. Should Fresno win there they have the best chance at the overall title.
Either way this year should see a team that’s not USC or Stanford win the cup, which hasn’t happened since 2006. It’s a little hard to believe but even in their down years Stanford has owned Cal and UCLA. And when they aren’t good USC usually is. This year both teams have tough losses and the way things are going each will probably take another.
San Diego State has had some great teams in the past few years so why didn’t they win one? Here’s the 2019 verbose run:
Fresno State 23 at USC 31 on Aug 31, 2019 San Diego State 23 at UCLA 14 on Sep 07, 2019 Stanford 20 at USC 45 on Sep 07, 2019 UCLA 34 at Stanford 16 on Oct 17, 2019 San Diego State 27 at San José State 17 on Oct 19, 2019 Fresno State 7 at San Diego State 17 on Nov 15, 2019 USC 41 at California 17 on Nov 16, 2019 UCLA 35 at USC 52 on Nov 23, 2019 California 24 at Stanford 20 on Nov 23, 2019 Fresno State 16 at San José State 17 on Nov 30, 2019 California 28 at UCLA 18 on Nov 30, 2019 2019 final standings USC 4-0 San Diego State 3-0 California 2-1 San José State 1-1 UCLA 1-3 Fresno State 0-3 Stanford 0-3 2019, 11, USC, 4-0
Undefeated, but USC was even more undefeated.
This 2017 San Diego State team was a beast but they somehow got blown out by Fresno at home as 6 point favorites, and it was another up year for USC:
Stanford 24 at USC 42 on Sep 09, 2017 Stanford 17 at San Diego State 20 on Sep 16, 2017 USC 30 at California 20 on Sep 23, 2017 UCLA 34 at Stanford 58 on Sep 23, 2017 Fresno State 27 at San José State 10 on Oct 07, 2017 Fresno State 27 at San Diego State 3 on Oct 21, 2017 San Diego State 52 at San José State 7 on Nov 04, 2017 California 14 at Stanford 17 on Nov 18, 2017 UCLA 23 at USC 28 on Nov 18, 2017 California 27 at UCLA 30 on Nov 24, 2017 Stanford 28 at USC 31 on Dec 01, 2017 2017 final standings USC 4-0 Fresno State 2-0 San Diego State 2-1 Stanford 2-3 UCLA 1-2 San José State 0-2 California 0-3 2017, 11, USC, 4-0
Here’s the one that’s really close for San Diego State. 2016. Another great defense and a team that finished ranked 25.
California 40 at San Diego State 45 on Sep 10, 2016 USC 10 at Stanford 27 on Sep 17, 2016 Stanford 22 at UCLA 13 on Sep 24, 2016 San Diego State 17 at Fresno State 3 on Oct 14, 2016 San José State 3 at San Diego State 42 on Oct 21, 2016 California 24 at USC 45 on Oct 27, 2016 Stanford 45 at California 31 on Nov 19, 2016 USC 36 at UCLA 14 on Nov 19, 2016 San José State 16 at Fresno State 14 on Nov 26, 2016 UCLA 10 at California 36 on Nov 26, 2016 looks like a tie for the cup head to head didn't resolve anything oppo check for Stanford and San Diego State 2016 final standings Stanford 3-0 San Diego State 3-0 USC 2-1 San José State 1-1 California 1-3 Fresno State 0-2 UCLA 0-3 2016, 10, Stanford, 3-0
We’re deep in the tie-break code here. Both Stanford and SDSU are 3-0 and thus they didn’t play each other. Head-to-head is the first tie-break and that falls through. It’s down to point differential against common opponents. The only common opponent is Cal. Because SDSU beat them 45-40 and Stanford won their game 45-31 the cup goes to Stanford by those 9 points. As always, it’s good to beat up on Cal as much as you can.
(Looking at that tiebreak code it seems I never implemented my 4th tiebreak, which is total overall margin of victory. Adding that to the board.)