A few years ago I added some code to apply “punt sadness score” and search for bad ones. I never really followed up because the play-by-play data was pretty polluted. Doing the API v2 cleanup reminded me of it so let’s see what running it against 2024 comes up with.
Disclaimer up front: This idea is created by Jon Bois and Chart Party in this video, please enjoy it. He creates and explains the formula and goes through the saddest punts in NFL history. What we’re doing here is applying the same formula to the college football stats base we love so well. The general idea is that it takes into account field position, yards to go for first down, time remaining and score. Trailing within one score is considered the “saddest” and gets the worst multiplier.
I added a big loop around the whole thing to go through all the weeks in a season and sort the big set rather than doing week by week as we had been. Let’s try a naive run:
The 20 worst punts of 2024 out of 7388 total punts:
1. 94416.771 Oct 05, 2024 Iowa versus Ohio State with 4th and 1, 0 yards to goal, gameclock 7:32 in Q2 (score 0-7)
2. 31191.374 Sep 14, 2024 San Diego State versus California with 4th and 8, 0 yards to goal, gameclock 7:14 in Q3 (score 3-14)
3. 14162.516 Sep 14, 2024 TCU versus UCF with 4th and 5, 0 yards to goal, gameclock 2:30 in Q3 (score 31-20)
4. 159.847 Aug 29, 2024 Jackson State versus UL Monroe with 4th and 0, 35 yards to goal, gameclock 15:00 in Q3 (score 7-14)
5. 159.847 Sep 28, 2024 Wagner versus Florida Atlantic with 4th and 0, 35 yards to goal, gameclock 14:28 in Q1 (score 0-7)
6. 159.847 Sep 28, 2024 Wagner versus Florida Atlantic with 4th and 0, 35 yards to goal, gameclock 15:00 in Q3 (score 10-17)
7. 149.993 Nov 08, 2024 San Diego State versus New Mexico with 4th and 5, 39 yards to goal, gameclock 8:11 in Q4 (score 16-21)
8. 148.664 Sep 07, 2024 Long Island University versus TCU with 4th and 4, 38 yards to goal, gameclock 7:10 in Q4 (score 0-45)
9. 119.886 Oct 05, 2024 Rutgers versus Nebraska with 4th and 0, 35 yards to goal, gameclock 1:48 in Q2 (score 0-14)
10. 115.829 Sep 28, 2024 Bowling Green versus Old Dominion with 4th and 5, 40 yards to goal, gameclock 8:59 in Q4 (score 21-23)
11. 101.463 Sep 07, 2024 Nicholls versus LSU with 4th and 6, 40 yards to goal, gameclock 7:21 in Q4 (score 21-44)
12. 100.107 Oct 26, 2024 Duke versus SMU with 4th and 9, 38 yards to goal, gameclock 2:40 in Q4 (score 21-21)
13. 92.072 Oct 19, 2024 UAB versus South Florida with 4th and 8, 33 yards to goal, gameclock 3:42 in Q2 (score 6-7)
14. 87.633 Nov 30, 2024 Arizona versus Arizona State with 4th and 2, 45 yards to goal, gameclock 2:10 in Q4 (score 7-49)
15. 80.535 Nov 22, 2024 San José State versus UNLV with 4th and 6, 39 yards to goal, gameclock 14:55 in Q4 (score 16-20)
16. 79.924 Aug 29, 2024 UL Monroe versus Jackson State with 4th and 0, 35 yards to goal, gameclock 15:00 in Q1 (score 0-0)
17. 79.924 Sep 14, 2024 California versus San Diego State with 4th and 0, 35 yards to goal, gameclock 15:00 in Q1 (score 0-0)
18. 77.804 Aug 31, 2024 Bethune-Cookman versus South Florida with 4th and 9, 36 yards to goal, gameclock 13:38 in Q4 (score 3-48)
19. 77.423 Oct 05, 2024 Minnesota versus USC with 4th and 8, 37 yards to goal, gameclock 14:54 in Q4 (score 10-17)
20. 73.983 Sep 21, 2024 Marshall versus Ohio State with 4th and 5, 43 yards to goal, gameclock 4:53 in Q4 (score 14-49)
The first number is the sadness score. This does not look great in terms of data hygiene. A few things jump out: there are quite a few coded as “0 yards to goal” which obviously does not make sense. Also there are quite a few coded as “4th and 0 from the 35”. That might be possible but seems unlikely that there would actually be any. Fortunately we have plenty of play-by-play data out there from ESPN and FoxSports recaps (especially for a recent season) so in spot-checking these weirdos I was able to see that “0 yards to goal” looks like mis-coding the 50-yard-line and “4th and 0 from the 35” looks like mis-coding kickoffs, which do indeed get placed at the kicking teams’s 35. So let’s put some code in to catch those errors.
The 20 worst punts of 2024 out of 7388 total punts:
1. 149.993 Nov 08, 2024 San Diego State versus New Mexico with 4th and 5, 39 yards to goal, gameclock 8:11 in Q4 (score 16-21)
2. 148.664 Sep 07, 2024 Long Island University versus TCU with 4th and 4, 38 yards to goal, gameclock 7:10 in Q4 (score 0-45)
3. 115.829 Sep 28, 2024 Bowling Green versus Old Dominion with 4th and 5, 40 yards to goal, gameclock 8:59 in Q4 (score 21-23)
4. 101.463 Sep 07, 2024 Nicholls versus LSU with 4th and 6, 40 yards to goal, gameclock 7:21 in Q4 (score 21-44)
5. 100.107 Oct 26, 2024 Duke versus SMU with 4th and 9, 38 yards to goal, gameclock 2:40 in Q4 (score 21-21)
6. 92.072 Oct 19, 2024 UAB versus South Florida with 4th and 8, 33 yards to goal, gameclock 3:42 in Q2 (score 6-7)
7. 87.633 Nov 30, 2024 Arizona versus Arizona State with 4th and 2, 45 yards to goal, gameclock 2:10 in Q4 (score 7-49)
8. 80.535 Nov 22, 2024 San José State versus UNLV with 4th and 6, 39 yards to goal, gameclock 14:55 in Q4 (score 16-20)
9. 77.804 Aug 31, 2024 Bethune-Cookman versus South Florida with 4th and 9, 36 yards to goal, gameclock 13:38 in Q4 (score 3-48)
10. 77.423 Oct 05, 2024 Minnesota versus USC with 4th and 8, 37 yards to goal, gameclock 14:54 in Q4 (score 10-17)
11. 73.983 Sep 21, 2024 Marshall versus Ohio State with 4th and 5, 43 yards to goal, gameclock 4:53 in Q4 (score 14-49)
12. 65.223 Aug 29, 2024 Central Connecticut versus Central Michigan with 4th and 7, 41 yards to goal, gameclock 5:48 in Q4 (score 10-65)
13. 64.395 Nov 29, 2024 Nebraska versus Iowa with 4th and 8, 40 yards to goal, gameclock 3:31 in Q4 (score 10-10)
14. 62.374 Sep 28, 2024 Old Dominion versus Bowling Green with 4th and 13, 33 yards to goal, gameclock 3:12 in Q3 (score 17-21)
15. 61.625 Sep 28, 2024 Arkansas versus Texas A&M with 4th and 8, 43 yards to goal, gameclock 5:35 in Q4 (score 17-21)
16. 60.178 Sep 07, 2024 Wyoming versus Idaho with 4th and 4, 43 yards to goal, gameclock 10:07 in Q4 (score 13-17)
17. 59.551 Sep 07, 2024 South Dakota versus Wisconsin with 4th and 7, 36 yards to goal, gameclock 6:50 in Q3 (score 10-17)
18. 57.545 Oct 26, 2024 Colorado State versus New Mexico with 4th and 6, 34 yards to goal, gameclock 3:28 in Q1 (score 0-0)
19. 57.085 Oct 12, 2024 Minnesota versus UCLA with 4th and 6, 47 yards to goal, gameclock 2:53 in Q4 (score 14-17)
20. 56.759 Sep 21, 2024 Missouri versus Vanderbilt with 4th and 1, 47 yards to goal, gameclock 0:53 in Q4 (score 20-20)
Ok that’s looking better, and by better I mean terrible. Wow! Look at those punts. We need to spot check. First let’s get a sense of what a “normal” punt scores as. Here’s some raw data from a bad team (Stanford) and a good team (Alabama) for a slice of the season weeks 2-8, where we get the worst punts and also the median sadness score for all punts:
The 20 worst punts out of 44 total punts
Median sadness score: 0.984
1. 18.501 Sep 07, 2024 South Florida versus Alabama with 4th and 15, 38 yards to goal, gameclock 0:11 in Q1 (score 3-7)
2. 15.010 Sep 07, 2024 South Florida versus Alabama with 4th and 8, 43 yards to goal, gameclock 11:29 in Q3 (score 6-14)
3. 12.075 Oct 12, 2024 Alabama versus South Carolina with 4th and 17, 42 yards to goal, gameclock 3:13 in Q3 (score 14-19)
4. 9.180 Sep 07, 2024 South Florida versus Alabama with 4th and 1, 87 yards to goal, gameclock 11:50 in Q4 (score 13-14)
5. 6.692 Sep 28, 2024 Alabama versus Georgia with 4th and 5, 42 yards to goal, gameclock 12:30 in Q4 (score 33-15)
6. 6.363 Sep 14, 2024 Wisconsin versus Alabama with 4th and 3, 84 yards to goal, gameclock 10:18 in Q4 (score 10-35)
7. 5.470 Sep 14, 2024 Wisconsin versus Alabama with 4th and 6, 71 yards to goal, gameclock 8:52 in Q4 (score 10-42)
8. 4.150 Sep 07, 2024 South Florida versus Alabama with 4th and 8, 50 yards to goal, gameclock 0:19 in Q2 (score 6-14)
9. 4.000 Sep 07, 2024 South Florida versus Alabama with 4th and 1, 66 yards to goal, gameclock 4:04 in Q1 (score 3-7)
10. 3.514 Oct 12, 2024 South Carolina versus Alabama with 4th and 5, 56 yards to goal, gameclock 8:18 in Q1 (score 0-7)
11. 2.231 Oct 05, 2024 Vanderbilt versus Alabama with 4th and 13, 42 yards to goal, gameclock 0:03 in Q2 (score 23-14)
12. 2.021 Sep 07, 2024 South Florida versus Alabama with 4th and 7, 85 yards to goal, gameclock 4:19 in Q3 (score 13-14)
13. 1.980 Sep 14, 2024 Wisconsin versus Alabama with 4th and 6, 59 yards to goal, gameclock 5:57 in Q2 (score 3-14)
14. 1.859 Sep 14, 2024 Alabama versus Wisconsin with 4th and 14, 43 yards to goal, gameclock 12:00 in Q4 (score 35-10)
15. 1.800 Sep 28, 2024 Georgia versus Alabama with 4th and 4, 73 yards to goal, gameclock 0:52 in Q1 (score 0-21)
16. 1.600 Sep 07, 2024 South Florida versus Alabama with 4th and 7, 72 yards to goal, gameclock 2:33 in Q2 (score 6-14)
17. 1.600 Sep 07, 2024 Alabama versus South Florida with 4th and 7, 72 yards to goal, gameclock 10:20 in Q1 (score 0-3)
18. 1.600 Sep 14, 2024 Wisconsin versus Alabama with 4th and 8, 73 yards to goal, gameclock 14:50 in Q2 (score 3-7)
19. 1.600 Oct 12, 2024 South Carolina versus Alabama with 4th and 9, 87 yards to goal, gameclock 8:10 in Q2 (score 0-7)
20. 1.165 Sep 14, 2024 Wisconsin versus Alabama with 4th and 14, 61 yards to goal, gameclock 13:40 in Q4 (score 10-35)
The 20 worst punts out of 39 total punts
Median sadness score: 1.200
1. 12.392 Oct 05, 2024 Stanford versus Virginia Tech with 4th and 7, 44 yards to goal, gameclock 8:44 in Q2 (score 0-7)
2. 8.059 Sep 20, 2024 Syracuse versus Stanford with 4th and 5, 70 yards to goal, gameclock 7:49 in Q4 (score 17-23)
3. 6.196 Sep 20, 2024 Syracuse versus Stanford with 4th and 11, 44 yards to goal, gameclock 2:35 in Q2 (score 3-10)
4. 4.966 Sep 07, 2024 Cal Poly versus Stanford with 4th and 11, 47 yards to goal, gameclock 14:14 in Q4 (score 7-31)
5. 3.733 Sep 07, 2024 Cal Poly versus Stanford with 4th and 10, 55 yards to goal, gameclock 6:20 in Q4 (score 7-38)
6. 2.918 Sep 07, 2024 Cal Poly versus Stanford with 4th and 4, 55 yards to goal, gameclock 11:52 in Q3 (score 7-21)
7. 2.405 Sep 20, 2024 Syracuse versus Stanford with 4th and 6, 69 yards to goal, gameclock 12:52 in Q3 (score 10-13)
8. 2.400 Oct 12, 2024 Stanford versus Notre Dame with 4th and 6, 71 yards to goal, gameclock 6:11 in Q2 (score 7-14)
9. 2.289 Oct 05, 2024 Stanford versus Virginia Tech with 4th and 15, 80 yards to goal, gameclock 6:28 in Q4 (score 7-28)
10. 1.980 Oct 05, 2024 Stanford versus Virginia Tech with 4th and 5, 59 yards to goal, gameclock 0:17 in Q2 (score 0-14)
11. 1.873 Sep 28, 2024 Stanford versus Clemson with 4th and 10, 65 yards to goal, gameclock 8:35 in Q4 (score 7-40)
12. 1.852 Sep 07, 2024 Cal Poly versus Stanford with 4th and 4, 73 yards to goal, gameclock 9:53 in Q3 (score 7-21)
13. 1.809 Oct 05, 2024 Stanford versus Virginia Tech with 4th and 5, 70 yards to goal, gameclock 12:06 in Q3 (score 0-21)
14. 1.800 Sep 28, 2024 Stanford versus Clemson with 4th and 5, 85 yards to goal, gameclock 4:20 in Q2 (score 0-10)
15. 1.800 Sep 28, 2024 Stanford versus Clemson with 4th and 6, 80 yards to goal, gameclock 7:32 in Q2 (score 0-10)
16. 1.600 Sep 20, 2024 Syracuse versus Stanford with 4th and 9, 64 yards to goal, gameclock 4:54 in Q1 (score 0-7)
17. 1.276 Oct 12, 2024 Stanford versus Notre Dame with 4th and 9, 63 yards to goal, gameclock 8:22 in Q3 (score 7-28)
18. 1.263 Sep 28, 2024 Stanford versus Clemson with 4th and 11, 55 yards to goal, gameclock 3:45 in Q3 (score 7-20)
19. 1.200 Sep 20, 2024 Syracuse versus Stanford with 4th and 9, 74 yards to goal, gameclock 11:48 in Q2 (score 0-10)
20. 1.200 Sep 28, 2024 Stanford versus Clemson with 4th and 9, 61 yards to goal, gameclock 14:50 in Q2 (score 0-10)
As you can see anything above 10 is a very sad/bad punt. The median score is around 1. So those triple digits are truly insane.
Let’s take a look at some of the them. First off I’m not going to get worked up about the blowouts. Sure it’s terrible, you should just run plays! But it’s hard to say that puts you in the running for worst of the worst. LIU, Nicholls State, Arizona you’re off the hook.
#6
Sadness score: 92.1
Logline: Oct 19, 2024 UAB versus South Florida with 4th and 8, 33 yards to goal, gameclock 3:42 in Q2 (score 6-7)
Offending coach: Trent Dilfer
Did this really happen: Apparently so.
Sicko quotient: They called timeout before punting. And then the result of the punt was a touchback. This game was the final straw that inspired this piece on Dilfer by Rodger Sherman.
Punished: Yes. Final score UAB lost 35-25.
#3
Sadness score: 115.8
Logline: Sep 28, 2024 Bowling Green versus Old Dominion with 4th and 5, 40 yards to goal, gameclock 8:59 in Q4 (score 21-23)
Offending coach: Scot Loeffler (since departed)
Did this really happen: This necronomicon of a play-by-play says yes.
Sicko quotient: Bowling Green was an 11.5 point favorite in this game.
Punished: Yes. BGU loses 30-27
#1
Sadness score: 150.0
Logline: Nov 08, 2024 San Diego State versus New Mexico with 4th and 5, 39 yards to goal, gameclock 8:11 in Q4 (score 16-21)
Offending coach: Sean Lewis
Did this really happen: NSFW link here
Sicko quotient: Oh no, look at this: “Tyler Pastula Named Ray Guy National Punter of the Week.” Dateline November 5, 2024. As George Bernard Shaw said “I can forgive Alfred Nobel for having invented dynamite, but only a fiend in human form could have invented the Nobel Prize.” I’m feeling that right now for whoever’s giving out weekly Ray Guy citations. Clearly all that praise went straight to the Aztec brainstem and resulted in calling for punts from the opponent’s 39 down one score in the fourth.
Punished: Yes. 21-16 loss as a 1.5 pt favorite.
#5
Sadness score: 100.1
Logline: Oct 26, 2024 Duke versus SMU with 4th and 9, 38 yards to goal, gameclock 2:40 in Q4 (score 21-21)
Offending coach: Manny Diaz
Did this really happen: Look on ye mighty and dismay.
Sicko quotient: SMU lost three fumbles and threw three interceptions and still won, partly because of all time terrible punt decisions like this. The punt in question went for a touchback of course.
Punished: Yes. Duke lost by one in overtime and SMU continued their run to the playoffs.
(I’m going to stop here but that Nebraska one looks terrible too. Against Iowa!)
All of these coaches should have been fired on the tarmac for these punts. However the UAB one is in the second quarter, that can’t be the worst worst. Bowling Green, wow that punt looks terrible but sorry the fate of Bowling Green is to never be #1 in anything. The San Diego State punt has the gaudiest number but the Ray Guy award thing is just enough mitigation. (Plus Mr. Ray Guy really did pin them to the two.) I just can’t get over this Duke entry. SMU came into the game 6-1, they had just broken into the AP rankings and there was already a “team of destiny” smell about them. If you’re Duke they are literally handing you the game with turnover after turnover. You cannot take your foot off the gas on the 38! It’s a tie game and you’ve got a chance to flip a coin for a decisive lead with two minutes left.
As it happened they lost on a coinflip anyway by going for it in overtime. I texted a superior analytical mind (my brother) without leading him too much and asked him what he thought:
> Teams should have a pass interference-magnet play for situations like that.
> Even if it’s fourth and long.
> Do back shoulder comeback fade or whatever. Odds on PI have to be higher than punting.
> And the fourth-and-long PI is such a backbreaking and demoralizing play for defense.
Exactly, there you have it. Do literally anything rather than give up the football for a minimal net yardage change. Letting SMU hang on by a fingernail changed the course of the 2024 playoff race. Congratulations Duke on the worst punt of the year.
Todo for next coding project: CFBD now has WPA (win probability added per play) so we should be able to go through and see how the sadness score relates to an objective drop in chance of winning.