The 2025 schedules are fully loaded into CFB data so let’s run it.
$ python3 ./mcc_schedule.py -v
California at San Diego State on Sep 19, 2025
San José State at Stanford on Sep 26, 2025
San Diego State at Fresno State on Oct 24, 2025
California at Stanford on Nov 21, 2025
San José State at San Diego State on Nov 21, 2025
Fresno State at San José State on Nov 28, 2025
UCLA at USC on Nov 28, 2025
Full Enumeration Simulation:
San Diego State 28 [22%]
San José State 28 [22%]
Stanford 20 [16%]
California 20 [16%]
Fresno State 16 [12%]
No Winner 16 [12%]
Monte Carlo [Sampled Home Margin Predictor] Simulation:
San Diego State 2358 [24%]
Stanford 2231 [22%]
San José State 2028 [20%]
Fresno State 1799 [18%]
California 1581 [16%]
No Winner 3 [0%]
Monte Carlo [Elo Predictor] Simulation:
San José State 3513 [35%]
California 3373 [34%]
Fresno State 2633 [26%]
San Diego State 278 [3%]
Stanford 194 [2%]
No Winner 9 [0%]
There are no standings, possibly because no games were completed.
2025, 7, ,
We’re using our hack for Elo by pulling the previous year final Elo number. Thanks to a nice roll of the schedule in the Mountain West, we get three games for San Jose State to reach a total slate of seven. Neither USC nor UCLA are playing a game against any other California team.
The predictors are showing a very low chance of “No Winner” so we will hopefully be able to award a cup this year. We’ll get updated Elos when the season starts so the predictive standings will be better before the first MCC game is played on September 19.
San Diego State is working on a 49 year drought so let’s hold out some hope there.