For Stanford it’s already over:
USC 41 at Stanford 28 on Sep 10, 2022 Fresno State at USC on Sep 17, 2022 San José State at Fresno State on Oct 14, 2022 San Diego State at Fresno State on Oct 28, 2022 Stanford at UCLA on Oct 28, 2022 California at USC on Nov 04, 2022 San José State at San Diego State on Nov 11, 2022 Stanford at California on Nov 18, 2022 USC at UCLA on Nov 18, 2022 UCLA at California on Nov 25, 2022 Full Enumeration Simulation: USC 128 [25%] San Diego State 80 [15%] San José State 80 [15%] Fresno State 68 [13%] UCLA 60 [11%] California 60 [11%] Stanford 8 [1%] No Winner 28 [5%] Monte Carlo [Sampled Home Margin Predictor] Simulation: USC 2784 [27%] Fresno State 1605 [16%] San Diego State 1455 [14%] UCLA 1426 [14%] California 1337 [13%] San José State 1269 [12%] Stanford 123 [1%] No Winner 1 [0%] Monte Carlo [Elo Predictor] Simulation: UCLA 4018 [40%] USC 2879 [28%] Fresno State 1585 [15%] San Diego State 786 [7%] California 570 [5%] San José State 151 [1%] Stanford 11 [0%] USC 1-0 Stanford 0-1 2022, 10, ,
As noted here Stanford’s defense is terrible. Stanford is all but mathematically eliminated after one game in all the simulations and that seems about right.
The Elo values are catching up and now USC is a strong second. This week’s Fresno/USC game is not only our marquee MCC matchup but will also be on Fox in primetime. The spread is 12 but it feels like it should be closer. The Coliseum hasn’t been much of a home field the last few years. If USC can beat the champs their path gets even clearer.
Elos: UCLA 1710 USC 1633 Fresno State 1584 California 1509 San Diego State 1474 San José State 1338 Stanford 1334
UCLA and Fresno both received no AP votes this week. USC at #7 is all alone.