I thought Sacramento State’s “Sac 12” efforts were dead in the water but I wasn’t paying attention. They did indeed manage to move up to the FBS level, albeit in the Mid American Conference. This is the first California football promotion since the glory days of the Cal State explosion of the 1970s. Our plea from two years ago has been answered.
Unfortunately they only scheduled one California team so they are not eligible for the Mythical California Cup. What a rookie mistake. Next year perhaps. The good news is that there are more than enough games for us to crown an actual champion this year:
San José State at USC on Aug 28, 2026
Fresno State at USC on Sep 03, 2026
UCLA at California on Sep 04, 2026
Sacramento State at Fresno State on Sep 11, 2026
San Diego State at UCLA on Sep 11, 2026
Fresno State at San José State on Sep 18, 2026
Fresno State at San Diego State on Oct 16, 2026
Stanford at California on Nov 20, 2026
USC at UCLA on Nov 27, 2026
Full Enumeration Simulation:
USC 94 [18%]
UCLA 87 [17%]
Fresno State 84 [16%]
San Diego State 60 [12%]
San José State 56 [11%]
California 53 [10%]
No Winner 78 [15%]
Monte Carlo [Sampled Home Margin Predictor] Simulation:
UCLA 1890 [19%]
USC 1873 [19%]
California 1833 [18%]
San Diego State 1564 [16%]
San José State 1482 [15%]
Fresno State 1341 [13%]
No Winner 17 [0%]
Monte Carlo [Elo Predictor] Simulation:
USC 8770 [88%]
Fresno State 475 [5%]
San Diego State 398 [4%]
California 281 [3%]
UCLA 68 [1%]
San José State 7 [0%]
No Winner 1 [0%]
There are no standings, possibly because no games were completed.
2026, 9, ,
In order to run the full simulation I used last year’s Elo values and subbed in a low Elo for Sac State, since the API doesn’t track FCS Elos.
Both USC and UCLA return to contention with three California games. Well done. This year Stanford somehow ended up with Big Game as its only one. You’re out, sit in the corner. Even without them we have six possible winners and very little chance of the dreaded “no winner” scenario.
USC is a clear favorite despite their disappointing finish last year. I’m a little surprised the Elo-informed Monte Carlo has such little respect for defending champ San Diego State. All they have to do is beat UCLA and Fresno and hope for a USC loss. USC’s opponents had pretty weak records last year. Here are the final Sagarin rankings of our pool:
18 Southern California
69 San Diego State
76 California
78 Stanford
79 UCLA
80 Fresno State
128 Sacramento State
144 San Jose State
Some competitive games there in the middle of the pack. The MCC lives, at least for another year.