We’ve had some interesting games. Cal went to San Diego State as an undefeated 17 point favorite, dreaming of possible glories with an ACC schedule where they somehow miss Miami, Florida State and Clemson. And there they flamed out spectacularly, losing 34-0.
Then Stanford and San Jose State played a very satisfying back and forth game which Stanford won 30-29.
The latest run:
$ python3 ./mcc_schedule.py -v
California 0 at San Diego State 34 on Sep 20, 2025
San José State 29 at Stanford 30 on Sep 27, 2025
San Diego State at Fresno State on Oct 24, 2025
California at Stanford on Nov 21, 2025
San José State at San Diego State on Nov 21, 2025
Fresno State at San José State on Nov 28, 2025
UCLA at USC on Nov 28, 2025
Full Enumeration Simulation:
San Diego State 12 [38%]
Stanford 8 [25%]
Fresno State 8 [25%]
San José State 4 [12%]
Monte Carlo [Sampled Home Margin Predictor] Simulation:
San Diego State 3640 [36%]
Stanford 2822 [28%]
Fresno State 2377 [24%]
San José State 1159 [12%]
No Winner 2 [0%]
Monte Carlo [Elo Predictor] Simulation:
Fresno State 3829 [38%]
San Diego State 3519 [35%]
San José State 1385 [14%]
Stanford 1264 [13%]
No Winner 3 [0%]
San Diego State 1-0
Stanford 1-0
California 0-1
San José State 0-1
2025, 7, ,
Fresno State still has the edge because their Elo is stronger. But San Diego State still controls its own destiny as well. One nice touch is that corner case “no winner” scenarios are pretty much off the table. (Why do the Monte Carlo runs see “no winner” where the tree-walking enumeration does not? That sounds like a bug.)
SDSU remains the sentimental favorite. Look at these awesome new Aztec-art-inspired “glyphs” they just introduced as graphic elements for their athletic teams:
You can read the press release here. It’s a nice luxury that they went through the painstaking process of washing this through three professors and “Chair of the Aztec Identity Initiative” but really we don’t have to do that any more. Cultural appropriation is awesome. After all we’re all out here remixing Shrovetide Football.
I forgot to post this yesterday and San Diego State went out and won again last night, which pushed their Elo up a tick so now they look like the statistical favorite as well:
$ python3 ./mcc_schedule.py -v
California 0 at San Diego State 34 on Sep 20, 2025
San José State 29 at Stanford 30 on Sep 27, 2025
San Diego State at Fresno State on Oct 24, 2025
San José State at San Diego State on Nov 21, 2025
California at Stanford on Nov 21, 2025
UCLA at USC on Nov 28, 2025
Fresno State at San José State on Nov 28, 2025
Full Enumeration Simulation:
San Diego State 12 [38%]
Stanford 8 [25%]
Fresno State 8 [25%]
San José State 4 [12%]
Monte Carlo [Sampled Home Margin Predictor] Simulation:
San Diego State 3653 [37%]
Stanford 2758 [28%]
Fresno State 2450 [24%]
San José State 1135 [11%]
No Winner 4 [0%]
Monte Carlo [Elo Predictor] Simulation:
San Diego State 4115 [41%]
Fresno State 3396 [34%]
Stanford 1252 [13%]
San José State 1236 [12%]
No Winner 1 [0%]
San Diego State 1-0
Stanford 1-0
California 0-1
San José State 0-1
2025, 7, ,
Results on results. Fresno State plays a pretty weak Nevada team today so it will be hard for them to move their number too much.